Total eclipse
Today's lunar insanity is obscuring a bunch of more important stuff.
I was in primary school in Port Moresby in 1983 when there was a total solar eclipse. I remember a couple of things pretty clearly: I was in Miss Hazel’s class and we made pinhole cameras using cardboard boxes. And, just before the appointed hour when day suddenly became night, we headed outside to use our “cameras” and wait for the moment when we could safely peek at the sun without—we were sure—the intense light frying our brains or immolating us or whatever horror we’d been convinced would result.
Now, eclipses aren’t really rare. There will be five globally this year—two solar and three lunar. And before anyone says “what about total solar eclipses?!”, there will be 68 this century around the world. Of course, just seven of those will be visible from the self-declared epicenter of the planet—the United States—and its next one isn’t until 2044, which maybe explains why the country has gone completely, irrationally, nuttily bananas about today’s event.
It’s insane. TV specials abound. Hotel rooms directly in the eclipse’s path have been booked for months; roads are crammed with people heading toward it like demented tornado catchers. Companies are trying to cash in, naturally, with all sorts of tenuously linked promotions. Google searches of “how long can you look at the sun” are spiking because, well, people are idiots (especially this doofus). And there’s op-ed after op-ed of people trying to convince me this really is an utterly life-changing event.
What eclipse mania has done, though, is obscure some very real shifts in the state of the nation more broadly. Fingers crossed: these shifts may actually have lasting impact way beyond the 90-odd minutes of today’s eclipse, when people will no doubt look at each other and say, “That’s it?” before trudging back to their cars, wondering why the hell they’re in Waco, and strapping in for the long drive to wherever they came from.
First, polls for this November’s presidential election have quietly begun trending in Joe Biden’s direction. I admit I tend to give the electorate far too much credit: I mean, I wasn’t alone in 2016 in thinking that when push came to shove, there was no way anyone could vote for Donald Trump. But trends are trends, and Biden is now ahead by a couple of points and shoring up support with critical voting blocs. And while Trump can claim increasing support among nonwhite potential voters, independents, and people under the age of 45, how much of that will stick? Some 40% of voters claim to still be open to persuasion, and I struggle to imagine any younger voter consciously plumping for the guy who wants to hand more money to the wealthiest Americans, roll back environmental protections, and tell women they don’t have control over their bodies.
Second, issues are trending toward Democrats. Take abortion. The Florida Supreme Court last week upheld the state’s strict six-week abortion ban while simultaneously clearing the way to include on the November ballot a referendum on whether to enshrine the right to an abortion in the state’s constitution. It’s the latter that makes Florida suddenly interesting given it’s ability to draw women to the polls around the issue of reproductive freedom, which has boosted Democrats universally since the Supreme Court two years ago decided “precedent schmecedent.”
The US economy also continues to outperform. Employers added far more jobs in March than economists expected, while wages kept growing faster than the rate of (pretty rapidly stabilizing) inflation. The country remains the outstanding performer among developed nations since the end of the pandemic, the stock market is at record highs, and there’s a sense that—at some point—credit has to go where it’s due.
Third, Trump. It’s hard to overstate the extent to which Americans ignore politics, which is why it’s important to now and then try to get out of the bubble the chattering classes inhabit. Here’s where things stand. Even as the presumptive Republican presidential nominee in a party completely reshaped in his image, about a fifth of Republican primary voters are still refusing to back Trump. I’m not naive enough to imagine many won’t ultimately fall into his camp. But it’s … interesting.
And it’s particularly interesting because even if you pay no attention to politics on a day-to-day basis, you’re unlikely to be able to ignore the hoopla in coming weeks and months as Trump’s legal battles advance. He’ll be in court daily starting next Monday for the hush-money trial over his payoff of pornstar Stormy Daniels (in case you’re wondering what it’s all about, it’s pretty simple: the allegation is Trump paid for her silence in the days right before the 2016 election). Even if you’re inclined to dismiss the case, the fact it’s the first time in history that an ex-president has faced criminal trial seems sure to resonate with at least a few voters. And he has months of legal travails ahead, although keeping him off the campaign trail may actually help him.
That’s because anyone who starts tuning in to what Trump actually says is in for a shock. I admit we’re largely inured to his craziness by now; Trump is so insane, so often that it’s background noise. But for anyone paying attention—particularly someone who decides they better see what’s what before casting a vote in the presidential election—they’re going to discover a world of early-onset dementia mixed with narcissistic insanity that should shock them to their core.
Finally, I’m just not convinced the wacky Independent run of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will hurt Biden. RFK is an embarrassment: a nepo baby crank and charlatan who simultaneously advances the ridiculous and dangerous. There’s much handwringing about his potential to do what Ralph Nader did to Al Gore back in 2000: RFK is polling around 10%, and the fear is he will siphon off enough Democrat votes to swing the election. Again, I’m not so sure.
RFK traffics in misinformation and conspiracy theories, and garners support from people who believe proximity to those who know what they’re doing somehow confers competence. “I’ve been around government and studying government since I was a little boy,” Kennedy told the New Yorker in November, which must mean Hunter Biden is equally qualified to be the leader of the free world.
Now, a lot of voters fall for this in the same way they see a businessperson and decide “that’s what we need in the White House,” as though running a government is just the same as running a corporation. But here’s the thing: aren’t Trump-curious voters far more likely to fall for RFK’s schtick than Democrats? It’s hard not to conclude RFK’s support would be higher among disaffected Republicans—who have trafficked in conspiracy theories and vaccine craziness for years—and it’s an issue pollsters are trying to figure out as we speak.
In any case, it perhaps shouldn’t be a surprise that a country convinced it’s going to hell in a hand basket (which should worry Biden, for sure) would embrace the distraction of the moon passing in front of the sun. Here in Illinois we’re supposed to get 93% totality so, yes, I’ll endeavor to take a peek. But don’t let the eclipse obscure some real developments as the country hurtles toward the election re-run no one wants.
UPDATE: The moon did indeed pass in front of the sun. That’s all.
A note about whatever this is …
After writing a few thousand articles for newspapers and magazines, I spent a long time trying a bunch of other stuff. I guess I figured what came (relatively) easily must by definition be less valuable, so I wandered in the corporate wilderness, becoming increasingly frustrated and doing work that felt increasingly lousy.
Sometimes with age comes wisdom, and I’ve realized finding something (relatively) easy ain’t a bad thing. So, this is a space where I’m resurrecting writing for myself, on topics weird and wild and wonderful.
Posts will appear when the mood takes me, but I do try to be consistently inconsistent—sometimes it’ll be a couple of days between drinks; sometimes a week. But if you subscribe, you’ll get a email letting you know I’m ranting. Again.