Art of the cave
Has there ever been a worse dealmaker than Donald Trump?
Moron.
After a week of roiling markets globally and threatening the health of both the US and world economy with his ill-informed, ridiculously calculated, and just plain insane tariffs, Donald Trump has folded like a cheap suit. Of course, he and his sycophants are spinning the living hell out of it: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who should know better but has apparently decided credibility and dignity are overrated, claimed it was Trump’s plan all along. Because he’s playing 17-dimension chess. Mmmkay?
Here’s what actually happened. For the better part of 40 years, Trump has clung to his flatly incorrect understanding of tariffs. Now in a position to assert his wrongheaded beliefs, he had a bunch of pimply-faced DOGE types ask ChatGPT to calculate tariffs based on a country’s trade deficit with the United States, whacked said tariffs on foes and friends alike, then watched global financial markets react with entirely predictable dismay. To suggest the world’s smartest finance professionals regarded Trump’s actions as anything other than the greatest act of economic self-sabotage in history is about as delusional as claiming he knew what he was doing.
So, trillions of dollars in value evaporated. America’s status as the world’s financial safe haven was threatened. And the country’s companies and consumers braced for rampant price increases as Trump officials tried to tell them it was time to wean themselves off affordable imported products. It was boneheaded and blundering but, of course, completely on brand.
Now? Trump has capitulated after days of pressure from CEOs who cynically supported him because they thought he’d be good for business, as well as the ongoing reaction of financial markets that are, in this case, the cleanest and clearest arbiter of the truth. It was classic Trump: act instinctively without a strategy or serious thought, realize it’s a disaster, huff and puff and pretend you’re tough, then cave and try to claim it was what you planned all along.
“They called it the art of the deal,” New Jersey Democratic Congressman Josh Gottheimer said on MSNBC. “It seems like it’s the art of stupidity.”
The reality is Trump is a horrible dealmaker. His negotiating approach essentially comprises doing whatever he wants purely for himself, threatening and intimidating others to agree, always involving lawyers somewhere, and then claiming victory no matter the outcome. Actually, that’s not true. His other tactic—on display in his effort to secure Ukraine on behalf of Vladimir Putin—is to give up all leverage at the beginning before then trying to bully the other side.
Which leads to the one loose end in all of this: China. While other nations know how to respond to Trump—a little flattery here, some cajoling there, and then give him a route to look like he “won” even when he didn’t—the world’s biggest manufacturer has little reason to. Not to say it won’t cut a deal just to remove the annoyance that is the United States, but it actually has little reason to strategically. After all, Trump’s insanity has other nations now viewing China as a haven of stability and predictability.
The other reason? While Trump increased tariffs on China yet again earlier today, it’s no more than a pathetic attempt to be macho. He’s already caved to countries far less important and vastly less of a threat to the wellbeing of both America’s economy and its consumers. China’s now well aware it has the upper hand, and it’s in a position to absorb plenty of short-term losses for longer term victory. The only question is whether it wants to use this showdown to truly assert itself—or save that for later.
Note: The fantastic image accompanying this was digitally altered by internet mischief makers. The original image is here … and much less hilarious (although the text on the X post is satire, surely?).
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A note about whatever this is …
After writing a few thousand articles for newspapers and magazines, I spent a long time trying a bunch of other stuff. I guess I figured what came (relatively) easily must by definition be less valuable, so I wandered in the corporate wilderness, becoming increasingly frustrated and doing work that felt increasingly lousy.
Sometimes with age comes wisdom, and I’ve realized finding something (relatively) easy ain’t a bad thing. So, this is a space where I’m resurrecting writing for myself, on topics weird and wild and wonderful.
Posts will appear when the mood takes me, but I do try to be consistently inconsistent—sometimes it’ll be a couple of days between drinks; sometimes a week. But if you subscribe, you’ll get a email letting you know I’m ranting. Again.